Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-06 10:38Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in Q3 is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400 yuan, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500 yuan, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 yuan [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4280 - 4330 yuan to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 yuan to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2] Polyester Raw Material Production Facilities - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production facilities. For MEG, facilities in Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, etc. had different production capacities, operating states, and production time. For PX, facilities in Yangzi Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, etc. were included. For PTA, facilities in Yizheng Chemical Fibre, Luoyang Petrochemical, etc. were listed [7] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Many polyester - related products showed price and spread changes on August 6, 2025, compared with previous days. For example, Brent crude oil was at 67.7 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.0 and a weekly change of - 4.8 dollars/barrel. TA01 contract was at 4754 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 32 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 100 yuan/ton. TA1 - 5 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 4 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 20 yuan/ton [8] Inventory and Processing Fees - On August 6, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 27131, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 2607. Many processing fees also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread was 37 dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 5 dollars/ton. POY profit was 111 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 45 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 110 yuan/ton [9]