Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].
珍酒李渡（06979）：报表释放压力，公司积极应对