中泰期货原糖周报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will increase next week, and the supply side may face some pressure. The spot price is stable, and the spot quotation has been raised. The fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market, but market sentiment remains, and future market competition is crucial. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview 1.1 Supply - side - The number of arriving ships decreased from 14 in July 25th, 2025 to 6 in August 1st, 2025, a decrease of 8. The arrival volume at ports dropped from 48.1 million cubic meters to 22.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 26.00 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and other types showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous month, with year - on - year decreases of 7%, 6%, etc. It is estimated that the arrival volume at ports will recover to 14 ships and 42.5 million cubic meters next week. The supply side has certain support, but due to less departure from New Zealand and rising foreign quotes, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be relatively low [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly shipment volume is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the national volume from 44.9 million cubic meters to 44.94 million cubic meters. The demand is still weak during the off - season, affected by weather and the decline in the real estate start - up rate. The apparent demand decreased by 41.0 million cubic meters. In terms of inventory, short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but due to weak downstream demand, the reduction amplitude is limited. With the recovery of arrivals next week, inventory is expected to increase under stable demand [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remain stable, but it is reported that the foreign quotes of New Zealand radiata pine in August are 1 - 2 US dollars higher than in July. The spot price is relatively stable with a slight decline during the off - season, and the future increase in foreign quotes may support the domestic spot price. The futures price has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market. The spot spread is relatively stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine [11][13]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine increased by 13 from 973 to 986, while that of spruce decreased by 9 from 1248 to 1238. The import profit of radiata pine decreased by 13 from - 48 to - 61, and the profit situation of wood products is relatively stable. Due to the recovery of foreign quotes and weak downstream and terminal demand, the profit of logs and wood products is expected to be weak [15]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, and the expected increase in arrivals this week may put pressure on the supply side. For the futures market, the spot quotation is raised, the fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet No specific content provided for analysis. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply - side - It includes aspects such as New Zealand log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.2 Demand - side - It involves the daily shipment volume of logs and the real estate situation, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.3 Log Downstream Analysis - For wood products, it includes price and profit analysis, and for downstream substitutes, it involves aluminum alloy analysis, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.4 Inventory - side - It includes inventory summaries, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. Part 4: Cost and Profit 4.1 Log Import Cost and Profit - The import cost and profit of logs are affected by factors such as foreign quotes and exchange rates, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 4.2 Log Delivery Profit - The delivery profit from Taicang to Chongqing in 2024 and 2025 is presented in a graph, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [80]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and their price seasonality is also mentioned, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [83][86]. 5.2 Radiata Pine and Spruce Spread Seasonality - The spread seasonality between radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [88]. 5.3 Radiata Pine and LG Basis - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [94]. 5.4 LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract are analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [96].