南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250807

1. Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 2. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] 3. Tin Price Volatility and Forecast - Latest closing price: 266,940 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.36% - Current volatility's historical percentile: 26.1% [2] 4. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy 1: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract, selling 75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell call options (SN2509C275000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy 1: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract, buying 50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell put options (SN2509P245000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 5. Factors Affecting Tin Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing - The semiconductor sector is still in the expansion cycle - Myanmar's resumption of production falls short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China - The semiconductor sector's expansion slows down and moves towards a contraction cycle [5][6] 6. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 267,280 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,230 | - 70 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0 | 0% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 500 | - 0.2% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,750 | - 500 | - 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 181,250 | - 500 | - 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,750 | - 500 | - 0.18% | [15] 7. Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 15,412.62 | - 1,335.69 | 9.49% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [19] 8. Tin Inventory Data Daily Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin | tons | 7,358 | 75 | 1.03% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Guangdong | tons | 4,905 | 57 | 1.18% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Shanghai | tons | 1,582 | 18 | 1.15% | | Total LME Tin Inventory | tons | 1,875 | - 25 | - 1.32% | [24]