LONCIN(SH:603766) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-07 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is a leading player in the domestic motorcycle industry, with motorcycle export sales expected to exceed 1.5 million units in 2024, ranking first in the industry. The motorcycle business revenue is projected to reach 12.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The domestic motorcycle market is experiencing a clear structural evolution, with the penetration of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles accelerating. The penetration rate of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in domestic sales has increased from 2.5% in 2020 to 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach 12% and 20% by 2025 and 2030, respectively [3][48]. - The global motorcycle market has a capacity of approximately 50 million units, with the overseas market for motorcycles above 250cc expected to have a market space of 5.5 million units in 2024, which is over nine times the domestic sales volume [4][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Longxin General is a diversified enterprise focused on the research, production, and sales of motorcycles, engines, general machinery, and other products. The company has undergone several strategic phases since its establishment, including partnerships with BMW and the launch of its high-end brand, Wujie [14][38]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2019 to 2024. The motorcycle and engine business contributed over 75% of the total revenue in 2024 [18][39]. Motorcycle Industry - The domestic motorcycle market is witnessing a shift towards mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, driven by increasing consumer demand for leisure and recreational use. The market potential remains significant, with a projected increase in sales and penetration rates [40][48]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the motorcycle export market, emphasizing the advantages of domestic brands in terms of product quality and cost-effectiveness, which positions them favorably against international competitors [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 20.16 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.88 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.91 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. - The investment suggestion is based on the dual expansion of the Wujie brand in both product and channel aspects, which is anticipated to accelerate growth through volume and profit resonance [6][39].