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锅圈(02517):运营效率优化,提高股东回报

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company's operational efficiency continues to improve in H1 2025, with promising growth potential for future store expansions [2]. - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating and raises the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to 4.20 billion, 5.05 billion, and 6.17 billion RMB respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 6.094 billion RMB, with projections of 6.470 billion for 2024, 7.451 billion for 2025, 8.309 billion for 2026, and 9.471 billion for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -15%, 6%, 15%, 12%, and 14% respectively [5]. - Gross profit for 2023 is 1.351 billion RMB, with estimates of 1.417 billion for 2024, 1.654 billion for 2025, 1.845 billion for 2026, and 2.103 billion for 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 240 million RMB for 2023, decreasing to 231 million in 2024, then increasing significantly to 420 million in 2025, 505 million in 2026, and 617 million in 2027, with growth rates of 4%, -4%, 82%, 20%, and 22% respectively [5]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.0716 RMB per share, totaling 1.90 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [11]. Operational Highlights - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.40 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a gross profit of 7.17 billion RMB, up 17.8% [11]. - The number of stores reached 10,400, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a net addition of 250 stores in H1 2025 [11]. - The company introduced 175 new SKUs in the hot pot and barbecue categories, enhancing its product offerings [11]. Market Positioning - The company aims to strengthen its supply chain and expand into lower-tier markets, with plans to explore overseas markets [11]. - The report suggests a target price of 4.24 HKD for 2025, based on a PE ratio of 26x, which is above the industry average [11].