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涪陵榨菜(002507):稳健扩产、推新加快,涪陵榨菜守稳主业、拓宽边界

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, which has been downgraded from a previous rating [2][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a slow recovery in its main business sales, with new products still in the investment phase and facing temporary pressure on expenses. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.72, 0.79, and 0.88 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.86 and 0.94 yuan for 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. - Despite these challenges, the company maintains strong brand barriers, continuous optimization of product structure, and a clear pace of capacity expansion [2][10]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 14.40 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials are as follows: - Revenue (in million yuan): 2,450 in 2023, 2,387 in 2024, 2,535 in 2025, 2,715 in 2026, and 2,931 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.9%, -2.6%, 6.2%, 7.1%, and 7.9% respectively [4]. - Operating profit (in million yuan): 976 in 2023, 942 in 2024, 978 in 2025, 1,075 in 2026, and 1,192 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.5%, -3.4%, 3.8%, 9.9%, and 10.9% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan): 827 in 2023, 799 in 2024, 830 in 2025, 912 in 2026, and 1,011 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.0%, -3.3%, 3.8%, 9.9%, and 10.9% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (in yuan): 0.72 in 2023, 0.69 in 2024, 0.72 in 2025, 0.79 in 2026, and 0.88 in 2027 [4]. - Gross margin: 50.7% in 2023, increasing to 54.3% by 2027 [4]. - Net margin: 33.7% in 2023, expected to reach 34.5% by 2027 [4]. - Return on equity (ROE): 10.3% in 2023, projected to stabilize around 10.3% by 2027 [4]. Product and Market Development - The company is accelerating its product update rhythm, with new product development and capacity layout progressing simultaneously. It has expanded its product matrix to include "pickled vegetables + side dishes + seasoning vegetables" [9]. - The company has seen rapid growth in exports, with 22.2% growth in export volume and 25.7% growth in export value in 2024, reaching 22,400 tons and 210 million yuan respectively [9]. - The company has successfully registered a geographical indication trademark and has been recognized in various agricultural brand reputation rankings [9].