CHINA PET FOODS(SZ:002891) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-07 07:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth, with domestic sales showing remarkable increases. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan, up 42.56% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.331 billion yuan, a 23.44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 112 million yuan, up 29.79% year-on-year. The company's domestic business growth exceeded expectations, and with the capacity release from the Mexico factory, profit margins are expected to expand further. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 478 million, 581 million, and 712 million yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 1.57, 1.91, and 2.34 yuan [3][4][5]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 31.38% and 9.16%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.40 percentage points and 1.25 percentage points. The increase in sales expenses was driven by higher investment in brand promotion and employee compensation, leading to a management expense increase of 82.50% to 148 million yuan [4][5]. Business Segments Performance - The company's revenue from snacks and staple foods in the first half of 2025 was 1.529 billion yuan and 780 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 6.37% and 85.79%, respectively. The gross profit margins for these segments were 30.63% and 36.63%, showing year-on-year increases of 3.40 percentage points and 0.79 percentage points [5][6]. Market Expansion - The company achieved domestic and international revenue of 857 million yuan and 1.575 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 38.89% and 17.61%, respectively. The gross profit margins for domestic and international sales were 37.68% and 27.95%, with year-on-year increases of 0.89 percentage points and 4.04 percentage points. The company is focusing on its overseas strategy as a core engine for global development, with products sold in 73 countries across five continents [6][8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates that for 2025, the expected revenue is 5.286 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%. The expected net profit is 478 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.3%. The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.57 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 36.6 [8][10].