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燕京啤酒(000729):公司深度报告:内外兼修,焕发新机

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) as it shows strong growth potential and is emerging from a low-profitability situation [2][5]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer is experiencing robust growth driven by the nationwide rollout of its flagship product U8, which has led to significant economies of scale. The company has improved its profitability through cost management and a reduction in losses from subsidiaries [5][19]. - The beer industry is expected to maintain stable production levels, with a focus on price increases as a primary growth driver, particularly in the mid-to-high-end product segments [5][44]. - The company has a clear growth path, focusing on expanding the U8 product line and optimizing its market channels, which positions it well for future growth [5][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Revitalizing Yanjing and Accelerating Catch-Up - Yanjing Beer has a stable shareholding structure, with the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission as the controlling shareholder [14]. - The company has shown strong growth momentum since 2021, with revenue and net profit increasing significantly, driven by the U8 product's performance [19][12]. 2. Strong Resilience in Premiumization - The beer industry is characterized by stable volume and price increases, with the top five companies holding over 90% market share, indicating limited room for further concentration [48]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with a significant increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to continue [52]. 3. Internal and External Synergies for Growth - Yanjing Beer plans to expand its U8 product line and enhance its retail channel presence, aiming to create a second nationwide flagship product [67]. - The company is implementing a refined management system to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to enhance profitability [5][31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Yanjing Beer's revenue and net profit shows a positive trend, with expected net profits of 15.03 billion, 18.05 billion, and 21.10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42.41%, 20.08%, and 16.87% [6].