新力量NewForce总第4832期

Financial Performance - Coinbase reported total revenue of $1.5 billion for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 26.4%, falling short of market expectations of $1.59 billion[5] - The net profit under GAAP was $1.43 billion, a staggering year-on-year increase of 3,865%, primarily due to one-time gains from a strategic investment and unrealized gains in crypto assets[5] - Adjusted for non-recurring items, the core business incurred a loss of $440 million, indicating underlying weakness in operations[5] Revenue Breakdown - Trading revenue plummeted to $764 million, a 39.5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, driven by low volatility in the crypto market, which reduced trading volume to $237 billion, a 39.7% drop[6] - Subscription and service revenue decreased by 6.1% to $656 million, but stablecoin revenue grew by 11.8% to $332 million, accounting for 22.2% of total revenue[6] Cost and Profitability - Total operating expenses surged to $1.52 billion, a 37% increase year-on-year, with cybersecurity costs reaching $308 million due to a data breach incident[7] - Cash reserves stood at $9.3 billion, a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while the value of crypto holdings was $1.26 billion, indicating liquidity remains adequate despite rising costs[7] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, trading revenue is projected to rebound to $360 million, a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter, while subscription and service revenue is expected to range between $665 million and $745 million, reflecting a 1-14% growth[8] Valuation and Rating - The target price for Coinbase has been adjusted to $320.00, representing a 7.46% upside from the previous closing price, with a hold rating reflecting the transition from a cyclical exchange to a crypto ecosystem infrastructure leader[9] - The market is perceived to be overly pessimistic about trading revenue, underestimating the monetization potential of subscription services and policy benefits[9] Risk Factors - Revenue remains heavily reliant on trading, with increasing competition and rising security and compliance costs posing significant risks[10]