Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline, approaching the lower limit of the trading range since July. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include a decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors are the possibility of a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market's reaction to bullish factors is limited, possibly due to the weakening of peak - season demand support. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus intensifies, and time is bearish for crude oil, with limited upside potential and a need to watch for downside risks. There is a lack of substantial short - term positive news, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia can be implemented after August 8 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - and Short - Term Analysis - Bullish factors: Decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data; Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices; Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50% [4]. - Bearish factors: A meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - US EIA data for the week ending August 1: Crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected - 0.591 million barrels, previous value + 7.698 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels (previous value + 0.0238 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels (previous value + 0.069 million barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels (expected - 0.406 million barrels, previous value - 2.724 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels (expected + 0.775 million barrels, previous value + 3.635 million barrels). Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 96.9% (expected 95.2%, previous value 95.4%) [5]. - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of September light crude oil. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, compared with a premium of $2.20 per barrel in August. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to the US in September was at a premium of $4.2 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to north - western Europe in September was at a premium of $3.35 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [5]. - The US White House stated that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. The tax rate will take effect at 00:01 on the 21st day after the issuance of the executive order [5]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Futures Prices and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2025 - 08 - 06 | 2025 - 07 - 31 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 67.43 | 66.89 | 72.53 | 0.54 | - 5.1 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 63.94 | 63.41 | 68.2 | 0.53 | - 4.26 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 494.2 | 499.5 | 525.3 | - 5.3 | - 31.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 66.21 | 66.77 | 72.51 | - 0.56 | - 6.3 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 69 | 69.18 | 75.07 | - 0.18 | - 6.07 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 69.41 | 69.8 | 76 | - 0.39 | - 6.59 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.73 | - 0.19 | - 0.05 | | Brent Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.72 | - 0.05 | - 0.1 | | Oman Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.94 | 0.86 | - 0.41 | | Dubai Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1 | 0.05 | - 0.07 | | SC Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | - 1.1 | - 0.7 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.6424 | 3.2412 | 0.2382 | - 1.5988 | 1.4042 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.0076 | 0.8512 | - 2.8418 | - 1.8588 | 1.8342 | [6]