Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in its pig farming business, with per-head profitability leading the industry. The poultry and meat business performance met expectations. The company is actively responding to national policies promoting high-quality development in the farming industry, sharing the benefits of industrial growth with partner farmers, and demonstrating its responsibility as a leading player in the sector [1][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimated between 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 202% to 285%. This growth is attributed to improved management efficiency, enhanced economies of scale, and a continuous decline in pig farming costs [6][12]. - The company is positioned to gain excess profits due to its cost advantages in pig farming, with expectations for a recovery in the poultry market in the second half of the year. The report highlights the potential for the company to leverage its breeding advantages to maintain a leading position in the industry [6][12]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 16.155 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.802 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29% [2][13]. - The operating profit is expected to recover from a loss of 1.297 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 6.995 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from a loss of 1.775 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.332 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [2][15]. - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 10.02 yuan for 2025, 14.64 yuan for 2026, and 21.43 yuan for 2027, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [2][15]. Business Segments - In the pig farming segment, the company is expected to sell approximately 5.117 million pigs in the first half of 2025, with an average selling price of about 15 yuan per kilogram, leading to a per-head profit of approximately 300 to 320 yuan, which is among the highest in the industry [6][12]. - The poultry segment, specifically the yellow feathered chicken business, is projected to see a slight increase in output, with the company focusing on enhancing the quality and market share of its products [6][12].
德康农牧（02419）：头均盈利持续领先，25H1盈利大增