Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-08 03:47Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Key Points by Category 1. Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - On the tin futures market, the prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 remained unchanged at 267,940 yuan/ton, 267,940 yuan/ton, and 268,250 yuan/ton respectively. The price of LME Tin 3M was 33,835 US dollars/ton, up 605 US dollars or 1.82%. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02, unchanged [7] 2. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (SN2509C275000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to long the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell put options (SN2509P245000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 3. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and transition to the contraction cycle [5][6] 4. Spot and Inventory Data Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots was 267,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.64%. The 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 42.86%. The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates were 255,200 yuan/ton and 259,200 yuan/ton respectively, both up 1,700 yuan [13] Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,332 tons, down 26 tons or 0.35%. Among them, the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong was 4,919 tons, up 14 tons or 0.29%, and in Shanghai was 1,542 tons, down 40 tons or 2.53%. The total LME tin inventory was 1,755 tons, down 120 tons or 6.4% [20] 5. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss was - 15,412.62 yuan/ton, up 9.49%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore were 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [21]