PDH(SH:600048) Orient Securities·2025-08-08 06:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 8.33 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's mid-term outlook is positive due to asset optimization leading to valuation recovery, despite slightly lower-than-expected interim performance [11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 116.8 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, primarily due to a reduction in turnover scale and low-margin project contributions [11]. - The company remains the top seller in the industry, with a sales amount of 145.2 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, also down 16% year-on-year, but with an average price per square meter increasing by 12% to 20,300 CNY [11]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2023A: 346,828 - 2024A: 311,666 - 2025E: 261,846 - 2026E: 234,674 - 2027E: 220,949 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: 23.4% - 2024A: -10.1% - 2025E: -16.0% - 2026E: -10.4% - 2027E: -5.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (CNY million): - 2023A: 12,067 - 2024A: 5,001 - 2025E: 5,914 - 2026E: 5,942 - 2027E: 8,376 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: -34.1% - 2024A: -58.6% - 2025E: 18.3% - 2026E: 0.5% - 2027E: 41.0% [4]. - Earnings per share (CNY): - 2023A: 1.01 - 2024A: 0.42 - 2025E: 0.49 - 2026E: 0.50 - 2027E: 0.70 [4]. - Gross margin (%): - 2023A: 16.0% - 2024A: 13.9% - 2025E: 13.7% - 2026E: 15.4% - 2027E: 18.3% [4]. - Net margin (%): - 2023A: 3.5% - 2024A: 1.6% - 2025E: 2.3% - 2026E: 2.5% - 2027E: 3.8% [4]. - Price-to-earnings ratio: - 2023A: 8.0 - 2024A: 19.2 - 2025E: 16.3 - 2026E: 16.2 - 2027E: 11.5 [4].