从周期视角看造纸行业“反内卷”

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address the issue of overcapacity and promote the exit of backward production capacity. Although the industry will remain under pressure in the short term, medium to long-term investment opportunities are emerging [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Overcapacity and Intensified "Involution" Dilemma - The main contradiction in the domestic paper industry is the mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity growth far exceeding demand since 2020. For instance, the capacity for boxboard paper is projected to reach 47.77 million tons in 2024, while the apparent consumption is only 35.33 million tons, indicating a capacity surplus of approximately 1.4 to 2.1 times [16][18]. - The prices and profitability of major paper types have dropped to historical lows due to this supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses in the industry. The total profit of the paper and paper products industry fell to 52 billion yuan in 2024, with losses from unprofitable companies reaching 16.8 billion yuan [26][27]. - The industry's operating indicators show a continuous decline in the operating rate, which has dropped from 80-90% to 60-70%, reflecting both proactive production cuts by companies and insufficient market demand [28][30]. 2. Historical Insights: Lessons from the 2016-2018 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 was driven by strong national policies, leading to a market clearing of backward production capacity and an increase in industry concentration. The number of paper enterprises decreased from 6,841 in February 2016 to 6,594 by mid-2017 [39][40]. - The price surge during this period was a result of effective supply-side reforms and steady demand growth, with major paper types experiencing price increases of over 40% [45][48]. 3. Core Judgments: Is This Round of "Anti-Involution" a New Cycle or a New Story? - The current paper industry has several logical foundations for initiating a new cycle of recovery, similar to those present before the last round of supply-side reforms. These include government policies aimed at addressing "involution" and the natural market clearing dynamics due to widespread losses [57][58]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits in the paper industry, effective from May 2025, will impose stricter requirements, potentially accelerating the exit of outdated production capacity [59][61].