HONGLU(SZ:002541) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-08-09 14:25Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the steel structure industry, focusing on high-end manufacturing and benefiting from the increasing penetration of prefabricated buildings and its growing market share [3][17] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 215.1 billion and a net profit of CNY 7.7 billion in 2024, with a projected annual production capacity of 5.2 million tons of steel structures by the end of 2024 [1][17] - The report highlights the strategic advantages of the company, including cost leadership and a strong focus on intelligent manufacturing, which is anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [2][3] Industry Opportunities - The penetration rate of prefabricated buildings is expected to increase, with the 14th Five-Year Plan mandating that over 30% of new buildings be prefabricated by 2025, leading to a projected new construction area of 874 million square meters [1][44] - By 2035, it is anticipated that steel structure applications in China will reach levels comparable to developed countries, with annual usage exceeding 200 million tons, accounting for over 25% of crude steel production [1][50] Company Advantages - The company has a competitive edge in cost and market share, with a significant increase in orders since 2017, achieving a new order volume of CNY 28.2 billion in 2024 [2][76] - The company has made substantial investments in intelligent manufacturing, which is expected to reduce welding costs by approximately 90% and enhance net profit margins by over 5% [2][3] - The company’s market share is projected to reach 4.7% in 2024, benefiting from its focus on material manufacturing and a flexible sales model [2][84] Financial Summary - The company is expected to generate revenues of CNY 22.2 billion in 2025, with a net profit of CNY 918 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% and 19% respectively [4] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a decline in net profit margin due to increased investments in intelligent manufacturing, with a projected net profit margin of 5% in the coming years [4][28]