Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-10 08:09Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The logic of lead smelting production cuts is gradually emerging, and the price bottom is rising. The strength analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic lead supply pressure is gradually emerging, but the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved, and the price is expected to show an overall shock. The supply side is more rigid and has a longer time cycle for price influence, so the price bottom support is still strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for positive arbitrage in spot-futures of Shanghai lead [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects - Price and Spread: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.66%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.15%. The LME lead 3-month closing price last week was 2,023 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.48%. The LME lead premium has changed, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium has decreased [9] - Inventory: Domestic lead total inventory has shown a marginal decline, from 73,000 tons on July 31st to 71,100 tons on August 7th. Various lead inventories such as Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory, total inventory, and social inventory have also changed [6][8][9] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3-month contract have changed compared with the previous week [9] Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and inventory have shown different trends over the years. The profit of lead concentrate and the treatment charge (TC) have also changed [30][32] - Primary Lead and Recycled Lead: The production and operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have changed over the years. The recycled lead has been in a loss state, and some enterprises will start to cut production [8][36][37] - By-products: The prices of primary lead by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid have changed over the years [39] - Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead: The raw material inventory, price, cost, and profit of recycled lead smelting enterprises have changed over the years [43][44][45][46] - Import and Export: The net import, import volume, and export volume of refined lead have changed over the years, and the import profit and loss have also changed [47] Lead Demand - Lead-Acid Batteries: The operating rate, finished product inventory days, and export volume of lead-acid battery enterprises have changed over the years [50] - Terminal Consumption: The actual consumption of lead, automobile production, and motorcycle production have changed over the years [52]