Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-10 08:24Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price of cast aluminum alloy has shown a slightly stronger oscillation. Due to the deepening of the traditional off - season, downstream enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, which may lead to further production cuts. With the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, cost support remains, so the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [6] - As of August 8, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons to 10.91 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory is still at a high level. In July, domestic automobile sales increased steadily, and the export situation of Chinese automobiles has been favorable since the second quarter [6] Summary by Directory Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillating trend [9][14][19] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has remained flat, while the monthly operating rate has rebounded. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while the social inventory has been accumulating. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [28][33][38][39][44][46] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions has different proportions, and the same is true for the inventory in different regions [49][50][52] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances are also provided, along with the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts and the inventory warning index of automobiles [56][57]