Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Trend Reverse Spread Confirmation" [1] - Date: August 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week (8.04 - 8.10), the spot market for pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 36.05 yuan/kg, the price of pigs in Henan dropped from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 13.88 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide decreased from 1628 yuan/head last week to 1614 yuan/head. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was at a low level. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.04KG, a 0.19% decrease from last week. In the futures market, pig futures prices fluctuated weakly. The LH2509 contract had a high of 13980 yuan/ton, a low of 13770 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13930 yuan/ton, down from 14055 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract was -50 yuan/ton, down from 375 yuan/ton last week [2]. - Next week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot price of pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand growth is limited. The spot price may reach a new low this year. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price closed at 13930 yuan/ton on August 8. The spot price at the end and beginning of the month was lower than expected, and the basis may gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract, and stop - profit and stop - loss should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data, Basis and Spread - This week's basis was -50 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 375 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Supply - This week's average slaughter weight was 124.04KG (last week: 124.28KG). Monthly pork production was 529.5 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a 5.6% month - on - month decrease [13]. 3. Demand - Not elaborated in detail in the content other than the general description of low demand in the market review and outlook.
生猪:弱现实强预期,趋势反套确认