碳酸锂：枧下窝停产，价格走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly, with the long - term contract basis changing from positive to negative. Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 76,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, also a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 550 yuan/ton to 71,900 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2509 contract) decreased by 7,170 yuan/ton to - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The spread between the 2509 - 2511 contracts was - 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Macro - On August 9, it was learned from multiple market sources that the mining end of Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight. Starting from August 10, the mining end of this mine will stop working, and there is no short - term resumption plan [2] 3.2.2 Supply - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 129,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons. In July, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43%, of which 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 33% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - This week, the new energy passenger vehicle market continued to recover, with sales of 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.38%. The new energy penetration rate slightly declined to 53% but still remained at a high level. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 9.0GW/25.8GWh of tendering work, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 34.24% [2] 3.2.4 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate increased, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation. The lithium carbonate inventory was 142,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 692 tons, and the number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 18,800 tons [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Single - sided - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4.2 Inter - period - It is recommended to wait for the structure to strengthen, then consider the upward movement of the single - sided price. With a negative long - term contract basis, the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly, which is suitable for reverse arbitrage [4] 3.4.3 Hedging - It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging after the price rebounds to a high level, and the hedging ratio should consider the annual output in the second half of the year [4]