Apple(US:AAPL) Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-10 11:14Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US employment situation is weak, leading to a continued increase in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market anticipates three 25bp rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - Overseas stock markets generally rose this week. US stocks hit record highs, and European stocks were boosted by the earnings season. The US dollar fell slightly, and US bond yields fluctuated. Oil prices dropped, while gold prices increased [1]. - Trump's policies mainly focus on tariffs and international negotiations. He plans to impose high - tariffs on semiconductors and chips and additional tariffs on India. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with a scheduled meeting between Trump and Putin [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equity Markets: US and European stocks rose. The NASDAQ led the gains among US stocks, and Apple soared over 13% after announcing a $100 billion investment in the US. The S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ rose 2.43%, 1.35%, and 3.87% respectively. European indices such as the German DAX and London FTSE 100 also increased [10]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The euro and the Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen depreciated [10]. - Interest Rates: US bond yields showed an upward trend overall. The 2Y and 10Y US bonds rose 7bp and 4bp respectively [11]. - Commodities: Oil prices declined due to US - Russia negotiations, and gold prices first rose on false tariff news and then fell after clarification. COMEX gold rose 1.29%, COMEX copper rose 1.26%, and WTI crude oil fell 5.81% [11]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed rate - cut expectations increased. Fed officials made dovish statements, and Trump appointed a "dovish" member to the Fed. As of August 9, the market's probability of a 25bp rate cut in September was 88.9%, up from 80.3% a week ago [24]. - The Bank of England and the Central Bank of Mexico cut rates by 25bp this week [26]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Tariffs: Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on semiconductors and chips, and additional 25% tariffs on India. Apple is exempt from these tariffs [27]. - Russia - Ukraine Conflict: Trump will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska [27]. - Fed Personnel: Trump selected Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, and the candidate list for the next Fed chair was expanded [27]. - Net Satisfaction: Trump's net satisfaction rate decreased to - 5.5% as of August 8 [29]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Sentiment - The probability of a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website dropped to 12% from 16% a week ago. Bloomberg expects the US and euro - zone real GDP growth rates in 2025 to be 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, unchanged from a week ago [4][33]. - The US economic activity index rose, while Germany's declined [38]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial and continued unemployment claims increased, indicating a weak employment situation [42]. 3.3 Demand - Retail sales in the US rebounded, airport security checks were better than last year, and the real - estate market activity picked up slightly [47]. 3.4 Production - The US production sector remained highly prosperous, with steel production and refinery utilization rates higher than last year [53]. 3.5 Shipping - Shipping rates generally declined. The Drewry World Container Index and Chinese port export container indices decreased [6][56]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices were stable, and inflation expectations rose slightly. The 1 - year inflation swap was 3.37%, up 0.05 percentage points from a week ago [6]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - Financial conditions tightened marginally, with credit spreads widening and the OFR US financial stress index rising [6]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Key US inflation data (CPI, PPI, and import price index) and July retail sales growth will be released. Attention should also be paid to the specific details of semiconductor and chip tariffs [6].