Vipshop(US:VIPS) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-10 14:41Group 1 - The core investment strategy of the report focuses on the potential of the CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, which is based on the Ningbo Shanjing Outlet project, with an expected fundraising of 2.321 to 3.481 yuan per share and a total of 2.901 billion yuan [2][6] - The project has shown strong operational performance with a visitor count of 13.1 million and an annual revenue nearing 2 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][14] - The project is expected to benefit from the completion of the Ningbo West Air-Rail Hub, which will enhance its development potential and customer reach [2][21] Group 2 - The brand matrix of the project is diverse and appealing, featuring a mix of international brands that attract significant consumer traffic, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.63% in visitor numbers from 2022 to 2024 [2][15] - The revenue structure is stable, with joint venture income accounting for approximately 75% of total revenue, supported by guaranteed minimum sales clauses that ensure income stability [2][39] - The project maintains a high occupancy rate of around 98% and a reasonable tenant concentration, with the top ten tenants contributing less than 30% of total income, indicating a well-diversified revenue base [2][50] Group 3 - The estimated fair value of the project assets is projected to be between 2.491 billion and 3.050 billion yuan, with an internal rate of return (IRR) ranging from 6.46% to 7.49%, significantly higher than the average for listed consumption REITs [2][5.1] - The forecasted capitalization rate for 2025 is expected to be between 6.22% and 7.54%, which is competitive compared to other commercial REITs [2][5.2] - The anticipated distribution rates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 5.21% and 5.65% respectively, which are notably higher than those of other consumption REITs [2][5.3]