Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) HUAXI Securities·2025-08-10 15:27Market Review - The A-share market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year. Key sectors leading the gains included defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, while pharmaceuticals, computers, retail, and social services experienced declines [1][2] - The trading volume in the A-share market decreased compared to the previous week, but margin trading activity remained high, with the margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years [1][2] Market Outlook - The current A-share market trend is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by various sources of incremental capital, including insurance, pension funds, public and private equity funds, as well as individual investors. The M1-M2 growth rate gap has been narrowing, indicating increased liquidity and a slight recovery in consumer and investment sentiment [2][4] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be a focal point, with technology and growth sectors expected to be the main policy themes for an extended period. Key areas of interest include new technologies such as domestic computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries, as well as opportunities in undervalued state-owned enterprises [2][4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish stance has opened up more room for monetary easing both domestically and internationally. Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with a probability of 89% according to CME FedWatch [4][20] - China's export growth has consistently exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in July, driven by strong exports to Africa and ASEAN, which offset declines in exports to the U.S. [4][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors that align with new technologies and growth directions, particularly in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan." Areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics, integrated circuits, and biomedicine are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of individual investors' risk appetite, which has been on the rise, as evidenced by the recent increase in margin trading activity and the overall positive sentiment in the equity market [2][4]