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南华期货铁合金周报:跟随煤炭,波动较大-20250811

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term, the real estate market is persistently sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive sectors for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position after a callback [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - Silicon Ferrosilicon: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5550 yuan/ton (- 50), and in Ningxia is 5500 yuan/ton (- 150). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5900 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Silicon Manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5800 yuan/ton (+ 80), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5870 yuan/ton (+ 70), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6000 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - Silicon Ferrosilicon: In Inner Mongolia, the profit is - 49 yuan/ton (- 134); in Ningxia, the profit is 48 yuan/ton (- 234) [2]. - Silicon Manganese: In the northern region, the profit is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+ 70.51); in the southern region, the profit is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+ 85.56) [2]. 3.3 Supply - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The weekly output is 10.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5% [2]. - Silicon Manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The weekly output is 19.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [2]. 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese. However, the inventory build - up of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese is limited. In June, the production of magnesium metal was 8.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. In the long - term, due to the sluggish real estate market, the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of silicon ferrosilicon is 2.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%; the demand for five major steel products of silicon manganese is 12.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [3]. 3.5 Inventory - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The enterprise inventory this week is 7.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 9.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%; the total inventory is 17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [3]. - Silicon Manganese: The enterprise inventory is 16.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%; the total inventory is 54.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% [3]. 3.6 Data Overview - Silicon Ferrosilicon Daily Data: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [6]. - Silicon Manganese Daily Data: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [7]. - Ferroalloy Weekly Data: It includes data such as production, operating rate, daily average hot metal production, and inventory of five major steel products, with week - on - week and year - on - year comparisons from August 1st to August 8th, 2025 [8].