Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-11 02:36Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton entered a narrow - range oscillation. The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the downstream sales have not recovered, resulting in insufficient driving force for cotton prices. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and the adjustment of the next week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - Supply: As of July 31, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - Import: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and flat year - on - year. The cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [1]. - Demand: In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% month - on - month and 3.10% year - on - year. In July, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and 0.06% year - on - year [1]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market - US Supply: As of August 3, the cotton budding rate in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 3 percentage points behind the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, flat month - on - month and 10 percentage points higher year - on - year [1][2]. - US Demand: From July 25 - 31, the net signing of US 24/25 - year - old upland cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment of upland cotton was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment of Pima cotton was 2,041 tons. 135,715 tons of cotton were carried over to the 25/26 season, with a net signing of 24,789 tons of 25/26 - year - old upland cotton and 1,202 tons of Pima cotton. The shipment for the 25/26 season has not started [2]. - Southeast Asia Supply: As of August 1, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.6 million hectares, a decrease of about 1.9% year - on - year [2]. - Southeast Asia Demand: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year. India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - Domestic: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing fast with good overall growth, but pest and disease problems in some cotton fields have intensified. The downstream spinning mills' profits are poor, with the overall load further declining. The fabric mill load has increased slightly, with a slight increase in sample - making orders, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products are slightly accumulating. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream restocking willingness is expected to improve marginally [4]. - International: As of August 2, Brazil's national cotton picking progress was about 29.7%, relatively slow. In India, the national cotton sowing progress is still slower than last year, and as of August 5, the cumulative rainfall of the southwest monsoon was 508mm, 3.4% higher than the annual average. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall on India's new cotton area [4].