Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-11 03:08Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The anti-involution theme has cooled down from its initial fervor, with volatility decreasing. The market outlook is short-term bearish and long-term bullish. The anti-involution theme is a long-term concept, and it's unlikely for prices to return to the levels of mid-June. A 5% increase in price can be considered as a bottom-line support. The recent market adjustment is seen as a technical one driven by delivery and exchange position limits [3][4]. - In terms of specific sectors and varieties, the feed and black sectors are bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The anti-involution theme has gradually calmed down after emotional release and exchange position limits. Near-month contracts face delivery pressure, and high-inventory varieties like glass and soda ash still have hedging needs. The 09 contract's position transfer affects the 2601 contract's price [4]. - The adjustment in the past week was mainly due to two factors: the delivery logic of high-inventory varieties and the adjustment caused by capital position transfer under exchange position limits. Minor market rumors may cause disturbances but won't affect the long-term anti-involution trend [3][5]. 2. Variety Adjustment - Different varieties have different adjustment amplitudes, which are related to their current inventory levels. For example, high-inventory glass and soda ash have seen the 2509 contract dragging down far-month contracts, with the 9-1 spread declining and far-month contracts showing resistive declines [5]. 3. Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital outflow is 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals outflow 2.429 billion yuan, non-ferrous metals 5.912 billion yuan, black metals 2.681 billion yuan, energy 0.051 billion yuan, chemicals 2.061 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.52 billion yuan, and soft commodities 1.663 billion yuan. The feed and oil sector has an inflow of 0.646 billion yuan [8]. - Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data: Provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non-ferrous varieties [8]. - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: Presents price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various energy and chemical varieties [10]. - Agricultural Product Weekly Data: Offers price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various agricultural products [11].