燕京啤酒（000729）：业绩超预告，升级动能足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 15.5 yuan [2][9]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported strong performance in H1 2025, with total revenue of 8.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.4% [2][9]. - The company continues to benefit from the strong growth of its flagship product U8, which has driven significant revenue increases, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market segments [9]. - The report highlights a decrease in expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability, with a net profit margin of 12.9% in H1 2025, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 8.56 billion yuan, with a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 45.4% increase [2][9]. - For Q2 2025, total revenue was 4.73 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 940 million yuan, a 43.0% increase [2][9]. - Cost and Margin Analysis: - The gross margin improved to 45.66%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points, driven by product mix enhancements [9]. - The report notes a decrease in sales and management expense ratios, contributing to the overall profitability improvement [9]. - Future Outlook: - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 900,000 tons for U8, with expectations of continued growth in the mid-to-high-end market segments [9]. - The report anticipates that as market conditions normalize, Yanjing Beer will see improved performance in the restaurant sector, further enhancing revenue growth [9]. Financial Projections - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.55 yuan, increasing to 0.76 yuan by 2027 [5][9]. - Revenue Forecast: - Expected total revenue for 2025 is 15.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [5][9]. - Net Profit Forecast: - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 47.0% [5][9].