Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-11 11:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is influenced by frequent export news, causing price fluctuations and interfering with spot transactions. The weekend saw price softening in sensitive areas, and upstream urea factories have gradually lowered their quotes. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea has support at the bottom and resistance at the top, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - The confirmed urea exports strengthen the support at the bottom of the futures market, which is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern due to strong speculative pricing. On the other hand, domestic policy pressure, with the association requiring factories to sell urea at low prices, has a negative impact on spot sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Situation Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management - High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | UR2509, UR2509P1850, UR2509C1950 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50%, - | 1800 - 1950, 15 - 20, 45 - 60 | | Procurement Management - Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situations | Short | To prevent rising urea prices from increasing procurement costs, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops | UR2509, UR2509P1750 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 1750 - 1900, 20 - 25 | [3]