有色金属周报（氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金）：美国7月消费端通胀反弹或削弱美联储降息预期，全球铝锭库存累积预期使铝价震荡承压-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the expectation of global aluminum ingot inventory accumulation puts pressure on aluminum prices [1]. - For alumina, the slight increase in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the expected supply - demand loosening due to rising operating capacity may lead to a weak and volatile alumina price [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increasing social inventory at home and abroad may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai aluminum prices [5]. - For aluminum alloy, the tight supply of scrap aluminum leads to continued losses in domestic recycled aluminum alloy production, and the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may keep the aluminum alloy price in a volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Alumina - Supply - side factors - Domestic bauxite production and imports in August may increase, with prices rising slightly. Projects such as the Shanxi Jinzhong energy - saving and efficiency - enhancing renovation project and the Guangxi Fangchenggang new - construction project may increase China's alumina production in August. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the matching surplus of China's alumina to electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in July has expanded [4]. - The Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum may increase production, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports and an increase in exports in August, and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [4]. - Investment strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - side factors - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase due to project resumptions and new constructions. Imports in August may also increase as some overseas plants resume production [5]. - Demand - side factors - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has increased, but there are differences in different product segments [5]. - Investment strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply - side factors - The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [7]. - Investment strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 19700 - 19900 and the pressure level around 20200 - 20300 [7].