Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:18Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol (EG) are basically stable, lacking obvious drivers, and its price trend is mainly range - bound. Although there is a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the supply - demand is in a fragile balance. With low inventory, the upward elasticity is expected to be large. Also, the coal - based profit has been compressed recently, and the downward space is expected to be limited under stable costs. It is recommended to buy EG on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are: 4200 - 4700 for ethylene glycol, 6500 - 7400 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5800 - 6500 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.09% for ethylene glycol, 11.78% for PX, 9.30% for PTA, and 7.92% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 1.4% for ethylene glycol, 17.7% for PX, 4.6% for PTA, and 0.9% for bottle chips [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2509 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4450 - 4550), buy EG2509P4350 put options, and sell EG2509C4500 call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 15) [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy EG2509 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4300 - 4400), sell EG2509P4350 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 30) to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factor: On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [4]. - Possible Negative Factor: There is a market rumor that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering heavy losses and may cut production, but the implementation needs further observation [7]. Price and Spread Data on August 11, 2025 - Price Changes: Compared with August 8 and August 4, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil dropped by 0.3 dollars/barrel compared with August 8 and 2.4 dollars/barrel compared with August 4 [8]. - Spread Changes: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, EG1 - 5, etc. also changed. For example, TA1 - 5 month - spread increased by 2 yuan/ton compared with August 8 and decreased by 6 yuan/ton compared with August 4 [8]. Production and Sales Rates and Processing Fees - Production and Sales Rates: The production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have different degrees of changes. For example, the polyester filament production and sales rate increased by 24.8% compared with August 8 [9]. - Processing Fees: Processing fees of products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc. also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread increased by 3 dollars/ton compared with August 8 [9].