Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) China Post Securities·2025-08-11 14:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 8.558 billion, 1.103 billion, and 1.036 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 6.37%, 45.45%, and 39.91% [4] - The company’s gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 45.50% and 12.89%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.14 and 3.46 percentage points [4] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio were 10.33%, 10.35%, and 1.56%, showing year-on-year changes of -0.54, -1.06, and -0.1 percentage points respectively [4] - The company’s beer sales volume reached 2.3517 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, with an average price of 3,639 yuan per ton, up 4.25% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 4.731 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 938 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 883 million yuan in Q2 2025, with year-on-year growth of 6.11%, 43.00%, and 38.43% respectively [5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 47.70% and 19.82%, with year-on-year changes of -0.63 and +5.11 percentage points [5] - The company’s beer sales volume in Q2 2025 was 1.3567 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, with an average price of 3,487 yuan per ton, up 4.57% year-on-year [5] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "full-channel integration + regional deep cultivation" strategy to activate market growth potential [6] - The company is focusing on a large product marketing strategy, creating a product matrix that includes high-end, mid-range, and regional specialty products [5][6] - The company is also promoting a "beer + beverage" combination marketing strategy to diversify its offerings [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly increased, with projected revenues of 15.573 billion, 16.427 billion, and 17.235 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 6.17%, 5.48%, and 4.92% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.511 billion, 1.818 billion, and 2.053 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 43.14%, 20.34%, and 12.89% respectively [8] - The corresponding EPS for the years 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.54, 0.65, and 0.73 yuan, with a current PE ratio of 24, 20, and 18 times [8]