PDH(SH:600048) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-11 14:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in sales despite a decline in sales volume, with a signed sales amount of 18.01 billion yuan in July 2025, down 28.9% year-on-year [7] - The company has increased its investment intensity, focusing on first- and second-tier cities, with over 90% of its land acquisitions in these areas [7] - The company is expected to gradually recover its valuation due to its strong market position and stable operations, despite facing challenges in the real estate market [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 346.83 billion yuan in 2023 to an estimated 287.05 billion yuan in 2025, with a revenue growth rate of -10.14% in 2024 and -7.90% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease significantly from 12.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.19 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of -58.56% in 2024 [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.43 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.51 [6][8] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a signed sales area of 910,000 square meters in July 2025, a decrease of 37.2% year-on-year, but still maintains the top position in the industry [7] - The average sales price for the company in the first seven months of 2025 was 20,260 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [7] Investment Strategy - The company acquired 27 plots of land in the first seven months of 2025, with 22 plots in first- and second-tier cities and 5 in third- and fourth-tier cities, indicating a strategic focus on high-potential markets [7] - The total investment amount for the company reached 51.87 billion yuan, with over 90% allocated to first- and second-tier cities [7]