Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 10% in the first half of the year, driven by an increase in both volume and price, but faced profit pressure due to fluctuations in orders from existing customers and the ramp-up of new factory capacities [3][4] - The company sold 115 million pairs of sports shoes in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, with operating income reaching RMB 12.661 billion, up 10.36% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.42% to RMB 1.664 billion [2][4] - The new factories that began production since September 2024 have negatively impacted overall profitability, but this effect is expected to ease in the second half of the year [3][20] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating income of RMB 12.661 billion, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with sales volume and unit price increasing by 6.1% and 4.2% respectively. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.4% to RMB 1.664 billion [2][4] - In the second quarter, operating income grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with sales volume and unit price increasing by 4.6% and 4.2% respectively. Operating profit decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, and the operating profit margin fell by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to 16.7% [4] New Factory Production and Ramp-Up - The company has been intensively launching new factories since September 2024, which has negatively impacted overall profitability. The negative effects are expected to ease in the second half of the year as new factories approach breakeven [20] - The company has launched multiple new factories, with expectations for additional factories to be operational in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [20] Tariff Impact - Tariffs for Vietnam and Indonesia have been set at 19-20%, with major international brand clients expected to pass most of the tariff costs onto consumers, limiting the burden on contract manufacturers [21] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a 10% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, despite a high base in 2024, primarily due to rapid growth in new customer orders. Profitability is under pressure, but improvements are anticipated as old customer orders stabilize and new factory capacities ramp up [24] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 3.571 billion, RMB 4.167 billion, and RMB 4.733 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% in 2025, followed by increases of 16.7% and 13.6% in the subsequent years [24][25]
华利集团（300979）：上半年收入增长10%，盈利受老客订单波动及新厂产能爬坡影响承压