南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin prices remained volatile on Monday, in line with expectations. Macro factors have limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. There is no significant change in demand [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,380 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [8] - Likely Negative Factors: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data (Daily): The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous - one, and Shanghai Tin continuous - three are all 268,380 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars or 0.33%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.98, up 0.08 or 1.01% [7] - Spot Data (Weekly): The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have different degrees of weekly increases, with ranges from 0.58% to 0.92% [14] 3.4 Tin Inventory and Other Data - Inventory Data (Daily): The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 143 tons to 7,326 tons, a decrease of 1.91%. The LME tin inventory decreased by 60 tons to 1,710 tons, a decrease of 3.39% [21] - Other Data: Tin import profit and loss is - 16,576.95 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [22]