STL(SZ:002648) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-12 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 showed a revenue of 11.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.7% [7] - The decline in Q2 performance is attributed to falling oil prices, which narrowed product price spreads, maintenance costs from PDH unit repairs, and a decrease in operating rates due to tariff impacts. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.56%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in C3 profitability in the second half of the year, driven by new production capacities in high polymer emulsions and other products [7] - The new materials project has faced delays due to US-China trade tensions, but the company expects to gradually increase production capacity in the second half of 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 6.2 billion yuan from the previous 6.9 billion yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 7.7 billion yuan and 9.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 52.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.6%. The net profit forecast is 6.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.4% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.9% [6]