wanhua(SH:600309) Orient Securities·2025-08-12 09:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was stable compared to the previous quarter, with a slight outperformance against expectations. The revenue for the first half of 2025 was 909 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 61.2 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year. Despite growth in sales volume across the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals sectors, the overall revenue declined due to falling sales prices [10] - The company has implemented effective cost control measures to mitigate the impact of declining gross margins. In Q2 2025, the gross profit was 58.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5 billion yuan from Q1 2025, but the net profit remained stable due to stringent expense management [10] - A shift in operational strategy is expected to reverse the current trend. The company aims to transition from a management-focused approach to a performance-driven mindset, which could lead to a rebound in products like MDI and TDI once the global macroeconomic environment stabilizes [10] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.38, 5.25, and 6.41 yuan respectively. The target price is set at 96.36 yuan, corresponding to a 22x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a 15% premium due to the company's long-term ROE and historical growth potential [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 210.051 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.723 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.3% [5][13] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 15.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.5% [5][13]