Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-12 11:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous performance forecasts [1][9]. - The beer business showed a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by the strong performance of the flagship product, Yanjing U8, which is expected to account for over 20% of total sales volume [1][10]. - The company is implementing a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy, which has led to significant growth in other business segments, particularly tea beverages and natural water, with revenue increases of 98.7% and 21.1% respectively [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the beer business's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 45.7%. The overall gross margin increased by 2.1 percentage points due to lower expense ratios and improved operational efficiency [2][10]. - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 15.59 billion, 16.57 billion, and 17.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.57 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan for the same years [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The flagship product Yanjing U8 has stabilized its pricing and is expected to continue driving sales growth in key markets such as Hunan, Sichuan, and Shandong [3][11]. - The company is undergoing internal reforms aimed at further reducing expense ratios, which is anticipated to enhance profit elasticity [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 24, 20, and 17 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3][11].