wanhua(SH:600309) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-12 11:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, with Q2 2025 showing stable profitability through cost control and a gradual bottoming out of product cycles [1][6] - The MDI segment experienced a rebound in Q2 2025, while the polyurethane sector compensated for price declines with increased volume [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong global market share in MDI due to its cost advantages, despite facing export pressures from geopolitical factors [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 182,069 million and 197,794 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% and 8.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 13,033 million for 2024 and 13,105 million for 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are estimated to be 4.15 yuan for 2024 and 4.19 yuan for 2025 [2] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 16.2% in 2024 and 14.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.8% and 12.2% respectively [2] Segment Performance - The polyurethane segment reported revenue of 368.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, with production and sales volumes rising by 5.30% and 12.64% respectively [7] - The petrochemical segment saw a revenue decline of 11.73% in H1 2025, with average prices dropping by 14.82% [9] - The new materials segment achieved a revenue growth of 20.41% in H1 2025, driven by successful project launches [11][12] Market Data - As of August 12, 2025, the company's closing price was 62.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of 196,907 million yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 for 2025 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.984 [3][2] Capital Expenditure - In H1 2025, the company spent 170.30 billion yuan on capital expenditures, a decrease of 30.35 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a potential easing of cash flow pressure [15]