KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Soochow Securities·2025-08-13 01:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Moutai's sales rhythm remains stable, while the series liquor faces marginal pressure [7] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that Moutai liquor's revenue grew by 10.2% in H1 and 11.0% in Q2, while series liquor saw a decline of 6.5% in Q2 due to high base effects and external demand pressures [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, focusing on optimizing product and channel strategies to explore revenue increments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue forecast (in million yuan): 150,560 in 2023, 174,144 in 2024, 190,161 in 2025, 198,851 in 2026, and 213,603 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.20%, 4.57%, and 7.42% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast (in million yuan): 74,734 in 2023, 86,228 in 2024, 93,233 in 2025, 96,541 in 2026, and 103,001 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.12%, 3.55%, and 6.69% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS forecast: 59.49 in 2023, 68.64 in 2024, 74.22 in 2025, 76.85 in 2026, and 81.99 in 2027 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.16 for 2023, decreasing to 17.53 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,437.04 yuan, with a one-year low of 1,245.83 yuan and a high of 1,910.00 yuan [5] - The market value of circulating A shares is approximately 1,805,206.49 million yuan [5] Basic Data - The book value per share is 205.67 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.14% [6] - The total share capital is 1,256.20 million shares [6]