KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huachuang Securities·2025-08-13 01:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.09 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion CNY, up 8.9% [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 39.65 billion CNY, growing 7.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 18.56 billion CNY, an increase of 5.2% [2][6]. - The company is adopting a pragmatic approach to growth, focusing on high-quality development and managing supply chain pressures [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 174.14 billion CNY in 2024 to 223.72 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 15.7% to 7.9% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 86.23 billion CNY in 2024 to 112.62 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates from 15.4% to 8.7% [2][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to increase from 68.64 CNY in 2024 to 89.65 CNY in 2027 [2][11]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, while Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 7.7 to 5.3 over the same period [2][11]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on reducing inventory and managing cash flow by adjusting payment terms and enhancing direct sales channels [2][6]. - Guizhou Moutai is also expanding its international presence, with Q2 2025 international revenue growing by 27.6% [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability and optimizing distribution channels to ensure sustainable growth [2][6].