金融期货早评-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic policies have raised market expectations for future livelihood - related policies, but demand recovery takes time. Economic data shows a marginal downward pressure, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Tariff risks are postponed, and overseas market's risk - preference has been corrected, with an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut [1]. - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.16 - 7.22, with a likely fluctuation center below 7.20. The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is influenced by economic data, and the US inflation situation is mixed [3]. - The stock index is cautiously optimistic in the short term but should be wary of corrections. The bond market is still suppressed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the shipping index futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The US CPI data has increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the medium - to - long - term, it may be bullish, while in the short - term, it is bearish but shows signs of stabilizing [9][11]. Base Metals - Copper: The lower support for copper prices can be raised from 77,000 yuan/ton to 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [12][13]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range, alumina to fluctuate, and cast aluminum alloy to show a similar trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for aluminum, be cautious of alumina's high - level decline, and consider arbitrage operations for cast aluminum alloy [14][15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Tin: The price has been slightly boosted due to production shortfalls at Bisie mine, and it is expected to rise slightly [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The short - term trend is downward. With the weakening of seasonal demand, the risk of supply surplus increases, and attention should be paid to downward risks [30][32]. - LPG: The market remains in a loose situation, with an increase in warehouse receipts [34]. - PX - PTA: It is recommended to buy low to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - MEG - bottle chips: Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly with coal, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle chips' absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - Methanol: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - PP: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly under the influence of sentiment [43]. - PE: It mainly follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the future situation depends on the degree of demand recovery [45]. - PVC: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: They are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to sell high to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread [48][49]. - Fuel oil: It remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil and suppresses the price [50]. - Asphalt: It follows the cost side and oscillates weakly [51]. - Urea: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The market expectations are volatile. Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - Logs: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - Propylene: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Macro - Market Information: Multiple policies have been introduced, including consumption loan subsidies and service - industry loan subsidies. The US CPI is lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased [1]. - Core Logic: Domestic policies have raised market expectations, but demand recovery is slow. Overseas, the risk - preference has been corrected, and the inflation situation is mixed [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market Review: The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate declined, and the central parity rate was adjusted downward [1]. - Core Logic: Externally, the US economic situation and inflation data affect the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Internally, the central bank's guidance and the economic fundamentals impact the exchange rate [3]. Stock Index - Market Review: The stock index rose with increased trading volume, and the futures contracts rose with reduced volume [5]. - Core Logic: Although the stock index rose, the number of falling stocks increased, and the optimism declined. The US inflation data may bring some positive support to the A - share market, but corrections should be watched out for [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market Review: Bond futures fell, and spot bond yields rose. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Shipping Index Futures - Market Review: The shipping index futures prices opened lower and then rebounded, with most contracts closing slightly lower [7]. - Core Logic: The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US has a neutral impact, and the futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Market Review: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, with the US inflation data affecting the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut [9]. - Core Logic: The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, while the short - term is bearish but stabilizing [11]. Base Metals - Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper index opened low and closed high [12]. - Core Logic: The lower support for copper prices has been raised, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different trends [14]. - Core Logic: Aluminum is in a high - level range, alumina has a weak fundamental outlook, and cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation [14][15]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: They continued to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Tin - Market Review: The tin index rose slightly [17]. - Core Logic: Supply - side factors have boosted the price, and the short - term trend is upward [18]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Market Review: The price declined [30]. - Core Logic: The short - term trend is downward, and the risk of supply surplus increases [32]. - LPG - Market Review: The futures prices rose, and warehouse receipts increased [34]. - Core Logic: The market remains loose [34]. - PX - PTA - Market Review: The prices followed the cost side to decline [34][35]. - Core Logic: It is recommended to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - MEG - bottle chips - Market Review: Ethylene glycol's inventory increased, and bottle chips' situation was related to the cost side [37][38]. - Core Logic: Ethylene glycol is recommended to buy on dips, and bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - Methanol - Market Review: The 09 contract price was at a certain level [39]. - Core Logic: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - PP - Market Review: The price fluctuated, and the inventory increased [40][42]. - Core Logic: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [43]. - PE - Market Review: The price rose, and the inventory increased [44]. - Core Logic: It follows macro - sentiment fluctuations [45]. - PVC - Market Review: The price situation was related to supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - Core Logic: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene - Market Review: The prices fluctuated, and the inventory changed [47][49]. - Core Logic: They are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to shrink the spread [48][49]. - Fuel oil - Market Review: The price was weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by crude oil [50]. - Core Logic: Fuel oil remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [50]. - Asphalt - Market Review: The price followed the cost side to decline [51]. - Core Logic: It oscillates weakly following the cost side [51]. - Urea - Market Review: The price was at a certain level, and the inventory decreased [52]. - Core Logic: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The prices of the three products showed different trends, and the inventory situation varied [52][54][56]. - Core Logic: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - Pulp - Market Review: The price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [57]. - Core Logic: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - Logs - Market Review: The price was in a certain range, and the inventory was low [57]. - Core Logic: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - Propylene - Market Review: The price rose slightly, and the device had some changes [58]. - Core Logic: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58].