KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-13 02:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Accumulate" with a target price of 2163.23 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue for H1 2025 reaching 91.094 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45.403 billion CNY, up 8.9% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report indicates that the company plans for a total revenue growth of 9% for the entire year [2]. - The company is actively taking measures to boost market confidence, including product launches and share buybacks [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 150.56 billion CNY - 2024A: 174.14 billion CNY - 2025E: 189.78 billion CNY - 2026E: 203.68 billion CNY - 2027E: 217.15 billion CNY - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023A: 74.73 billion CNY - 2024A: 86.23 billion CNY - 2025E: 92.28 billion CNY - 2026E: 98.78 billion CNY - 2027E: 105.59 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 CNY - 2024A: 68.64 CNY - 2025E: 73.46 CNY - 2026E: 78.63 CNY - 2027E: 84.05 CNY [4][12]. Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, the stock price was 1437.04 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 1261.00-1748.00 CNY [6]. - The market capitalization is approximately 1,805.206 million CNY [6]. - The dividend yield is reported at 3.6% [2][12]. Sales and Revenue Insights - In Q2 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 32 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while series liquor revenue was 6.7 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7% [12]. - The company is focusing on capturing market demand and has initiated a share buyback program, completing 5.3 billion CNY of buybacks as of August 4, 2025 [12].