南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250813

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As time passes, downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe that the current price has basically fulfilled previous expectations. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton for copper prices can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The change from B structure to C structure in the copper term structure indicates that this round of copper price increase is supported by the structure and may be relatively solid [3] 3. Summary by Category Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest price of copper is 79,020 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Positive Factors: The US reaching an agreement on tariff policies with other countries, increased expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals, and the upward shift of the lower support level [4] - Likely Negative Factors: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventories caused by US tariff policy adjustments on copper [5][6] Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton with no daily change; the London Copper 3M is 9,840 US dollars/ton, up 1.17% (113.5 US dollars). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.18, up 0.37% (0.03) [5] - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,150 yuan/ton, 79,120 yuan/ton, 78,950 yuan/ton, and 79,190 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes in the premiums and discounts of major spot markets are significant, such as a 33.33% increase in the Shanghai Non - ferrous electrolytic copper spot premium [7] Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - Scrap Spread: The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,064.89 yuan/ton, down 0.93%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,491.5 yuan/ton, down 0.01%. The price advantage (含税) is - 426.61 yuan/ton, up 2.38% [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,296 tons, up 12.98% (3,021 tons). The total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [13] Copper Inventory and Import Data - Inventory: LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 0.45% (- 700 tons). COMEX copper inventory is 265,889 tons, up 1.03% (2,709 tons) [15][17] - Import: The copper import profit and loss is - 75.33 yuan/ton, down 24.88% (24.95 yuan). The copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton with no change [18]