KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) CMS·2025-08-13 03:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 91.09 billion and 45.40 billion respectively in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.9% [1][7] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were 39.65 billion and 18.56 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and 5.3% [1][7] - The company is focusing on accelerating the sales of its flagship products and increasing the proportion of mid-tier products while expanding its international market presence [1][7] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 faced pressure due to increased marketing expenses, leading to a slight decline in profitability [1][7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the upcoming holiday season as a critical test for demand [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is 180.52 billion, with a current share price of 1437.04 yuan [3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 37.7%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.8% [3] - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 74.13, 79.16, and 83.47 yuan respectively [1][7] - The company’s cash flow from operations in H1 2025 was 13.12 billion, down 64.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The report indicates that the company’s direct sales channel accounted for 44.8% of total sales in Q2 2025, an increase of 3.59 percentage points [1][7] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue from its flagship liquor and series liquor in H1 2025 was 75.59 billion and 13.76 billion, representing growth of 10.2% and 4.7% respectively [1][7] - The report notes that the company added 137 new domestic distributors in H1 2025, likely due to adjustments in the distributor structure [1][7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 49.5% due to increased marketing and sales expenses [1][7]