Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-13 03:27Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy - end disturbances may affect the long - term supply of live pigs. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the live pig market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment boosting market confidence and a high historical standard - fat price spread. Negative factors involve a high inventory of breeding sows, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, high slaughter volume with losses in slaughter profits, and dull downstream consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and its historical percentile over three years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventory worried about inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling live pig futures (LH2511) at a recommended ratio of 20%, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future procurement plans worried about price increases, strategies include buying long - term live pig contracts according to the procurement plan, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Prices: The national average live pig spot price is 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.15%). Prices in different regions vary, with prices in Henan rising 0.02 yuan (0.15%) to 13.68 yuan/kg, and prices in other regions either stable or slightly down [8]. - Futures Prices: Closing prices of various live pig futures contracts on the day remained unchanged, with no price fluctuations [9]. 3.4 Spreads and Basis - Spreads: Spreads between different futures contracts show various changes. For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 1,005 yuan, up 25 yuan (2.55%), while the spread of LH03 - 05 is - 540 yuan, up 25 yuan (- 4.42%) [17][19]. - Basis: The basis between the Henan spot price and different futures contracts also shows different changes. For example, the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 745 yuan, down 40 yuan (5.67%) [19].