KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-08-13 03:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market index over the next six months [1][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated steady growth in the first half of 2025, achieving total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [6]. - Despite challenges in the second quarter due to seasonal factors and policy restrictions on government-related alcohol consumption, the company successfully completed its targets, showcasing its resilience as a leading player in the industry [6]. - The company is actively managing its product distribution and adjusting its marketing strategies in response to market conditions, particularly in the context of reduced consumption scenarios [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue from its flagship product, Moutai liquor, of 75.590 billion yuan, a 10.24% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, up 4.69% [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Moutai liquor revenue reached 32.033 billion yuan, a 10.99% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue declined by 6.52% to 6.741 billion yuan [6]. - The company's gross profit margin slightly decreased to 91.30%, and the net profit margin was 52.56%, reflecting a minor decline due to increased marketing expenses [6]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share of 74.61 yuan and 79.76 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19 times and 18 times [6][7].