KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Ping An Securities·2025-08-13 03:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guizhou Moutai [1][5][12] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's total revenue for 1H25 reached 911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 454 billion yuan, up 8.9% [5] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in 1H25 was 756 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.2% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 138 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase [8] - Direct sales revenue in 1H25 amounted to 400 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this channel [8] - The report anticipates a slight decline in profit margins due to increased marketing expenses, with a net profit margin of 46.8% in 2Q25, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to grow from 170,899 million yuan in 2024 to 204,778 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 15.7% to 4.5% [7] - Net profit is projected to increase from 86,228 million yuan in 2024 to 103,676 million yuan in 2027, with a similar trend in growth rates [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to slightly decline [7] Market Position - Guizhou Moutai continues to strengthen its market position through ongoing reforms and digital marketing initiatives, such as the "i Moutai" platform, which generated 108 billion yuan in revenue in 1H25 [8] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt ratio of 14.8%, indicating solid financial health [8]