方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has been affected by the suspension of mining operations at Jiangxi Jianxiawo and the announced suspension of Zangge Mining, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. Although the short - term demand - side restocking supports lithium prices, the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is likely to change from surplus to shortage, and prices may return above 100,000 yuan in the third and fourth quarters [5][6]. - For industrial silicon, profit drives the resumption of production in major producing areas, and downstream demand has recovered. The inventory of manufacturers is slowly decreasing, but the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low. The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures trend is more influenced by news, with a strong policy support but limited upside space [7]. - For polysilicon, if the industry's joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Lithium Carbonate 09: The market is driven by news, with a support level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan and a pressure level of 100,000 - 120,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Downstream cathode material enterprises are advised to pay attention to low - level stocking or buying hedging opportunities [15]. - Industrial Silicon 09: Driven by news, with a support level of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan and a pressure level of 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [15]. - Polysilicon 09: Driven by news, with a support level of 47,000 - 48,000 yuan and a pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to take partial profits or exit long positions on rallies and hedge short put options on rallies [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 82,520 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.88%, a trading volume of 1,417,704 lots, an open interest of 356,998 lots, an increase of 39,322 lots in open interest, and 20,829 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,840 yuan, with a daily decrease of 1.78%, a trading volume of 520,504 lots, an open interest of 278,860 lots, an increase of 6,917 lots in open interest, and 50,658 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 51,800 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a trading volume of 481,809 lots, an open interest of 136,055 lots, a decrease of 3,684 lots in open interest, and 4,940 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from the previous week. The short - term concern about supply stability supports lithium prices, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is declining [5]. - Downstream Situation: No specific data provided, but graphs related to downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are mentioned [26]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Profit drives the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and the downstream demand has recovered, resulting in a slow reduction of manufacturers' inventory. However, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low, and the spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - Downstream Situation: Graphs related to downstream products such as organic silicon DMC and aluminum alloy are mentioned [37]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: If the joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [9]. - Downstream Situation: Graphs related to downstream products such as silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are mentioned [43].