KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huaan Securities·2025-08-13 09:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.65 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.56 billion yuan, up 5.25% year-on-year [11] - The company demonstrated operational resilience with a 9% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, despite a challenging environment [7][11] - The company is expected to achieve its annual targets without issues, with ongoing product development and channel strategies to enhance consumer engagement [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2025 revenue breakdown: Moutai liquor revenue increased by 11.0% while series liquor revenue decreased by 6.5%, with Moutai liquor's share of total revenue rising by 2.6 percentage points to 82.6% [11] - For H1 2025, total revenue reached 91.09 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 45.40 billion yuan, up 8.89% [11] - The company's gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 90.4%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased expenses [5][11] Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company's operating cash flow decreased by 84.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, mainly due to reduced deposits and increased reserve requirements [12] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company's contract liabilities amounted to 5.51 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease compared to previous periods [12] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 190.13 billion yuan, 205.04 billion yuan, and 218.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.8%, and 6.5% [13] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 93.94 billion yuan, 102.03 billion yuan, and 109.07 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 8.9%, 8.6%, and 6.9% [13]