贵州茅台（600519）：定海神针稳，时间换空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 9% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, also up by 9% [4][9] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 91.30%, attributed to increased volume of kilogram Maotai and higher market investment for the 1935 brand [5] - The revenue from Maotai liquor increased by 10.99% to 320.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, while series liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% to 67.40 billion yuan [6] - Direct sales revenue grew by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is expected to achieve its annual revenue targets through refined product allocation and optimized distribution structure [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, both reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [4] - Q2 2025 revenue was 387.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 185.55 billion yuan, showing a 7% increase in revenue and a 5% increase in net profit compared to the previous year [4] Product and Sales Analysis - The revenue from Maotai liquor in Q2 2025 was 320.32 billion yuan, up 10.99%, while series liquor revenue was 67.40 billion yuan, down 6.53% [6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 91.30%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to increased kilogram Maotai sales [5] Channel and Market Strategy - Direct sales revenue increased by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel dynamics while cautiously promoting collection progress [5] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 74.81, 81.16, and 87.68 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times [9]